CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z FRI 05/11 - 06Z SAT 06/11 2004
ISSUED: 04/11 17:07Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across southern Mediterranean

General thunderstorms are forecast across southern Scandinavia and Baltic Sea

SYNOPSIS

As intense upper trough over northwestern Europe expands southeastward into eastern and central Europe ... upper ridge over southeastern Europe weakens and cut-off low over eastern Mediterranean disperses while moving eastward. Over the Iberian Peninsula ... upper cut-off low will move westward.

DISCUSSION

...Eastern Mediterranean ...
Quite warm and unstable airmass will remain over the eastern parts of the Mediterranean east of propagating cold front that should reach Crete during Friday. Although synoptic forcing should gradually weaken as upper low and associated cold front will dissolve during the day ... thunderstorms should go on along the frontal boundary ... reaching Crete on Friday. Vertical wind shear should be quite low ... and severe thunderstorms will be not likely. Rather strong instability ... CAPE may reach more than 1000 J/kg as indicated by GFS model output ... and low LCL heights in the range of the cold front/outflow-boundaries associated with today's convection as well as locally enhanced SRH values ... may create favorable conditions for isolated organized convection. Large hail, severe wind gusts and one tornado or two are not ruled out on Friday. However ... overall threat will be significantly lower than in the past days ... and we will abandon to issue a SLGT.

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